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Friday, 18 November 2005


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Good food for thought. And it isn't only the general public that has trouble with incorporating new facts. I recently read about the research work of Philip Tetlock (Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can we know?) who after nearly 20 years of studying expert political forecasters, found that experts tended not to adjust their beliefs when the evidence came in, but rather rationalised or denied their errors. He also found that the best predictor of good judgment was the person's commitment to "thinking about how they think" - i.e. metacognition.

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